Nate Silver Offers Up a Statistical Analysis of Your Failing Relationship.
BY JORY JOHN
[Originally published February 26, 2013.]
While data shows that overall happiness in your relationship fell 8 more points, there is still a 31 percent chance of makeup sex this Friday, depending on average energy levels after work and how proactive you’re feeling (see chart). However, if you just order $18 of Chinese takeout like you did last weekend, projections show a 16.8 percent drop in possible intercourse and a whopping 74.2 percent upswing in Netflix-streaming, with both of you falling asleep long before the movie is over.
In an exit poll from Monday evening, exactly one half of the duo in attendance said they had an unfavorable opinion of the chosen restaurant—Arby’s—wondering if it was some sort of retribution, or if this is sadly what it’s come to.
Between the hours of 6 and 7 p.m. tonight, there was a 77.1 percent increase in annoyance and a 54 percent rise in revulsion based on the way you slurped your capellini, drank 65 percent too much wine and prattled on about your ex-girlfriend Sarah for some reason, even though she has a new boyfriend with a sailboat, and you’ve supposedly moved on, too. The logic here is that you are 44 percent over Sarah after 3 years, but there is only a 3.6 percent chance of her taking you back, which is reduced by nearly half of a percentage point every time she steps foot on that boat.
In a very local poll released just this week, 50 percent of those in your current relationship said it bothers them when you leave your shoes in the middle of the carpet and added that, if you could clean a dirty dish or two—putting in a minimal effort of just 5 minutes—stress would be reduced by 39 percent, along with a telling 54 percent decrease in shouting matches and escalating threats to leave forever.
You’ve lost nearly 100 hairs on your head every day since March, 2011, when the two of you met, which is almost 36,500 hairs in the last year and nearly 73,000 hairs in the last two years. This is, ultimately, why you’ll be 84 percent bald by the time you’re 45.
In a survey conducted with your partner’s biological parents between Tuesday and Wednesday, you are currently ranked seventh most popular on the list of known boyfriends, after Andrew R., Bryan, Kevin, Seth, Shawn and Kyle, but before Andrew Y. who refused to apply labels to relationships and wanted to “keep things loose.”
Of the seven ex-boyfriends listed above, two of them (Andrew R. and Seth) have sent a combined two emails to your girlfriend this month, totaling about 2,200 words, both of which have gone 100 percent unmentioned.
The aforementioned emails were placed in a folder marked “SAVE,” which actually contains 26 messages you’ve never seen, 23 of which would immediately increase your base paranoia by 87 percent.
There are upwards of 12,000 couples within 10 square miles of your house who had more measurable fun than you did in the last eight weeks, as evidenced by this graph (right). The red line is indicative of genuine laughter, the purple line represents long, meaningful stares, the blue line shows a water sport or plane ride, and the orange line depicts sunsets or sunrises enjoyed without irony or arguments.
Your current net approval rating is at 42 percent, revealing a divided house. If you look to your approval rating at this same time last year, it stood at 59 percent while, two years ago, it was at an all-time high of 81 percent, excepting that flu-week when you wore the same sweatpants for 6 straight days. Your incessant, fever-stricken whining lowered your then-approval to 54 percent (although sympathy conversely rose 13.6 percent in that same timeframe). However, it’s important to note that there is no rebound this time, according to polls with a margin of +/- 1. Across the board, you’re less popular now than ever before.
According to a survey conducted last month, your partnership ranks as the second most doomed on your block, behind the couple who stand on their lawn and shriek at each other. Yours is statistically guaranteed to end three years sooner than that really attractive woman’s, the one who recently moved in across the street and is home a mere 32 percent of the week. Of the 16 occasions you’ve peered through your blinds and noticed her walking to her car, she is on the phone with her boyfriend 53 percent of the time and there’s an 91.5 percent chance that it’s serious.
The trend line shows that the odds of remaining in this current relationship hover steadily at 1 in 52, the very same chances of drawing the queen of hearts out of a deck of well-shuffled playing cards.
My procedures are not skewed toward your relationship failing, as I have a macro perspective on commitment and monogamy. By using quantitive polls and demographics—and after talking to numerous individuals who knew dozens of unhappy couples—I’ve accurately predicted exactly 50 out of 50 breakups this year. There is no reason to doubt my system. Valuations show that yours will meet a comparable end and that I will be right for the 51st consecutive time.
My breakup forecast shows you losing 35 of the albums you bought together at garage sales, leaving you with only 15, including Sting’s fourth solo record, Ten Summoner’s Tales, which neither of you really wanted. The album does contain the song “If I Ever Lose My Faith In You,” which seems prescient in hindsight and which made it to #17 on the Billboard charts in 1993. There is a 97 percent chance you’ll listen to the song at least 20 times.
Additionally, there is a 62.8 percent likelihood that your girlfriend will be dating somebody new within three months of your split. If this happens, there is an 84 percent chance that it’s that new friend from the gym you keep hearing about (see photo).
Ultimately, please don’t give me too much credit for this accumulated data. Although 0.0 percent of your mutual friends were willing to say anything, 93.9 percent of them saw this coming from the start.
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