Our election model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency. Her chance of losing is about the same as an NFL kicker missing a 34-yard field goal. Hang onto your ballots everyone — we’re almost there.
But don’t uncork the Champagne just yet. Clinton’s chance of winning in a landslide is the same as Charlie Brown’s chance of kicking the football that Lucy is holding in place. It’s likely that Lucy will pull the ball away at the exact moment that Charlie Brown is trying to kick it, which is a poignant symbol of despair and crushed hopes, and is also how this election might turn out after all. That’s sports, folks! Donald Trump could still pull this thing off.
Consider Arizona. Donald Trump’s chance of winning the Grand Canyon state is about the same as the likelihood that David Hasselhoff would agree to do a carpool karaoke with James Corden — very likely, indeed. The chances that James Corden would want to do a carpool karaoke with the Hoff, however, are dim.
The chance that the next president and the newly-elected Congress will work at cross purposes is about the same as Ed, from your fantasy football league, having a stent put in before he reaches the age of fifty-five. The chance that Congress will stall all legislation and meaningful progress is roughly equal to the likelihood that Ed will make a joke the next time you try to open up about your feelings of dread for the future.
The odds that the winner of Florida will lose the general election are notoriously low, and contravenes everything we know about modern presidential elections. This makes most of the above forecast obsolete, because we all know that anything can happen in Florida. If Florida indeed swings red, the probability of severe depression setting in after this election is about the same as an NFL tight end seeing the Great Pumpkin on Halloween after he has dropped acid — it could happen, along with rapid mood swings and paranoia.
Here, in this interactive diagram, we let you control the outcome of the 10 swing states, which gives you a taste of what it might be like to actually control something consequential, much like when you post something on Facebook and pretend that it will make a difference in this election cycle.
Given the close race in the swing states, Hillary Clinton might yet become the Michelle Kwan of American politics. She can land seven fucking perfect triple jumps, but it still won’t matter because she emailed a 52-year-old man who sent dick pics to a teenage girl, and no one understands what James Comey is talking about.
The chances that you are following this election way too closely are about the same as the chances that the Dallas Cowboys will win their next game, because they are playing the Cleveland Browns. The odds that you will practice self-care and stop obsessively checking poll numbers and real-time updates are about the same as the chances of Tom Brady dumping Gisele Bündchen for The Little Red-Haired girl in a hallucinogenic pumpkin patch. Because much like watching a horror movie, you just can’t seem to look away.
The odds that you reside in an echo chamber state in which accepted notions of truth are significantly different than they are in most of the others, is the same as the chances that you are disoriented, distraught and heartbroken, which are common side effects of taking acid, and also exactly how Ed secretly feels, but he won’t ever express genuine emotion because of the eighth grade shaming incident.
A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House, which has a 18.9% chance of being painted gold in January. The odds that the NFL players’ protest against the national anthem will be respected by anyone who has added inverted parentheses or the word “deplorable” to their Twitter handle, is comparatively low, which is why this red and blue snake graphic, meant to illustrate the projected margins between the candidates, appears to be agitated. It’s our favorite graphic, by the way!
Our election model suggests that Donald Trump still has a chance of winning the presidency, which is why this red and blue snake graphic is hightailing it out of Dodge, just after the Broncos play the Raiders on Sunday. Remember the old adage, folks: It ain’t over until the lady in the pantsuit wins 270 electoral votes.