“After the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, the national forecast improved for Democrats. However, Republicans have regained much of that ground in October, keeping with the usual trends of midterm elections.”
— FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast, October 24, 2022
Repeat after me: “The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
The President’s party always loses the midterms.
Again: “The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
The President’s party always loses the midterms… but the polling this summer looked so good. What happened?
That’s why we’re doing this. “The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
The President’s party always loses the midterms… though I really thought Dobbs was going to be a game-changer.
We all did. “The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
The President’s party always loses the—and there was that big win in Kansas! You don’t get more ruby red than that.
Stay focused. “The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
The President’s party always loses—okay, then how are we here? I mean, it’s not like the Republicans have some amazing candidates…
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
Like Kari Lake. Her whole campaign is centered around refusing to certify the 2024 election if Trump loses again. Why would anyone in Arizona think of voting for her? Did they not see that shitshow of a debate?
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
And Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania. He was among the insurrectionists who broke into the Capitol on January 6. How could any party that nominates this guy have a chance?
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
But at least Mastriano lives in Pennsylvania. Dr. Oz barely stepped foot there until he decided to run for Senate. How is this even close? Yeah, I know Fetterman’s health isn’t great, but still…
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
And I haven’t even mentioned Herschel Walker…
… “The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
Yeah, Mr. Family Values trying to lecture Black families on fatherhood, but he’s got several kids he pretends don’t even exist.
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
And he’s so anti-abortion until his girlfriends get pregnant. Tried to hide that one too, but we literally have the receipts!
… “The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
Fine, want me to move on? How about Blake Masters in Arizona? A “replacement theory” conspiracist who blames gun violence on Black people and inflation on affirmative action.
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
And let’s not forget Ron DeSantis, who tricked Venezuelan migrants into getting on a plane and then flew them to Martha’s Vineyard, and had ex-cons arrested for the crime of voting.
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
And Ron Johnson, who actually tried to get Mike Pence to accept fake electors on the day the mob was chanting, “Hang Mike Pence!” Then, when reporters tried to ask him about it, he pretended to be on his phone until the reporters called him out. And this guy is a senator with two terms on his way to a third.
… “The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
Sorry, gotta go back to Walker. He said he opposes clean air laws, because then America’s “good air” goes to China, which pushes “China’s bad air” back to America! Seriously, watch the clip for yourself.
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
He literally pulled out a toy badge at a debate like it was some kind of a mic drop. No, think about that; he carries a toy badge around with him and thinks it’s real. He honest to God believes he is a police officer. And Georgia, you’re just okay with this?! C’mon!
“The President’s party always loses the mid—”
No, stop it! This isn’t working. Plus, history doesn’t determine behavior. Voters don’t have to vote Republican just because history says so. Republicans are the party out of power because they DESERVE to be the party out of power.
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
And your little mantra isn’t even true. In 1998, Democrats made gains in the House. That’s because voters rejected Republicans’ plan to impeach Bill Clinton. January 6 was far worse than that.
… “The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
Have we all just forgotten the January 6 hearings? Trump’s own aides testified that he tried every trick possible to overturn the election, he knew the crowd was armed, and even tried to grab the steering wheel from his Secret Service detail so he could join his MAGA mob. Does that all mean nothing?
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
Oh, you’re still at it? Fine. What about 2002? Republicans made gains in both Houses. Sure, you could say it was 9/11, but it also shows that with real coordination between the White House and party leadership, you can still win midterms. Where’s Jaime Harrison been the last two years? What the hell are they doing over there?!
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
Now you’re just pissing me off.
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
…
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
…
“The President’s party always loses the midterms the”—okay, look, I get your frustration. And yes, you are right that historical precedent doesn’t require repetition. But history does provide predictive indicators. And we are seeing standard trends reassert themselves. It’s unfortunate, but we shouldn’t be too surprised or discouraged.
…
“The President’s party always… The American people prefer a divided government—what do you want me to say?
…
Yes, fine, Republicans have no platform except drill oil, restrict abortion, and only certify elections they win. And yes, I think that should be enough for Democrats to be up by ten points in every election. But I’m only one voter, and getting upset over it doesn’t fix anything. So just say the mantra and move on.
…
“The President’s party always loses the midterms.”
…
“The President’s party always loses”—screw it. Just go vote, and let’s hope for the best. You know your polling place, right?